Are we entering the next Bull cycle
or are we still Bearish?
Indicator #1: Public
Sentiment is measured by the total number
of investment clubs in the
National Association of Investment Clubs.
Total
number of clubs measured at year end gives a rough sense
of the level of interest that the public has in stock investing. This
first graph
below shows you how the total number of NAIC clubs measured each fifth
year from the founding year of the NAIC in
1955 roughly fluctuates with
the cycle rising in a bull market and dropping in a bear market.

The next graph below measures the total number
of NAIC clubs each year and shows you the decline during our recent bear
crash from a peak of 37,129 clubs in 1998. The trend this year in
2005 is that clubs are still closing shop indicating that the general
public is disinterested in the market and that you should be out there
buying bonanza bases while the herd is looking the other way!

|